'sup /r/networking.
Over the past decade, I've made a number of predictions for around the 2020 time frame. I'm going to try enumerate on them and say where I am with them. Please feel free to use this post as a place where you can either reflect on your own predictions for 2020, or predict the next decade in networking.
- Cisco will exit the routing/switching market by 2020
Around the 2012/2015 timeframe, I was commonly saying that Cisco will exit routing/switching "by around 2020". This was based on their constantly eroding market share in edge routing and DC switching (They remain in enterprise however).
Given their last few years of "becoming a software company" and now their latest move of "Cisco Silicon One", I think I'm on the right track, just overly aggressive timelines.
Overall, I'd say I was a 50/50 on this one. Trends matched up with where I was thinking, however I never expected Cisco to actually play to their strengths (ie: focus on being a foundry). Time frame was also overly optimistic.
- Arista will be the new Cisco by 2020
Pretty sure I was right here, Arista is the first choice in DC switching, and fast becoming represented in edge routing.
- NetEng jobs will go away
Pretty sure I'm right here. There's very, VERY few NetEng jobs out there right now. I just changed jobs, and I can tell you most of my interviews was coding/algorithms, and maybe 20% NetEng.
So, /r/networking - how did your own predictions go? Do you have some for the coming year/decade?
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